Trump’s latest boast about the economy isn’t even close to accurate
President Donald Trump spent the morning bragging about the economy. At least one of his claims didn’t come close to being true.
“The GDP Rate (4.2%) is higher than the Unemployment Rate (3.9%) for the first time in over 100 years!” the president said in a tweet.
The GDP Rate (4.2%) is higher than the Unemployment Rate (3.9%) for the first time in over 100 years!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 10, 2018
The first two numbers are correct, although they measure completely different things, and in different ways.
The overall US economy grew at a 4.2% annual rate in the second quarter. Unemployment was between 3.8% and 4% during the quarter, and it came in at 3.9% in August.
That’s all good news.
“It’s definitely better when it’s true than when it’s not,” said Justin Wolfers, professor of economics at University of Michigan. “I like high GDP growth and low unemployment.”
But Trump got it wrong — way wrong — when he said it hasn’t happened in a century.
In the last 70 years, it’s happened in at least 62 quarters, most recently in 2006.
“He wasn’t even in the neighborhood of right,” Wolfers said in an interview.
Wolfers tweeted a response to Trump’s claim. In fact, it took him two tweets to list all the quarters in which economic growth was higher than the unemployment rate. He added a chart.
Source: https://t.co/nOwTjJyxD1 pic.twitter.com/D82IDP0rCx
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) September 10, 2018
“It certainly not a natural comparison,” Wolfers said. “I’ve never seen it made before. It’s not one that a macroeconomist would make. They’re not comparable.”
That’s not just because lower unemployment is better, while higher GDP is preferable.
The unemployment rate is a monthly reading on the percentage of people in the labor force who are looking for work. It is a snapshot of a current condition.
GDP is a reading of the output of the overall economy. When economists talk about GDP growth, they’re not talking about a snapshot of a current condition. They are measuring the change compared with a year earlier. Quarterly GDP growth is also adjusted to come up with the annual rate.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
This happened in 1941, 42, 43, 44, 48, 50, 51, 52, 53, 55, 59, 62, 64, 65, 66, 68, 72, 73, 98, 99, and 2000.