New START Treaty Expires, Ending Nuclear Arms Control
The New START treaty between the United States and Russia expired on February 6, 2026, eliminating the only binding cap on deployed nuclear warheads—set at 1,550 per side. The expiration marks the first time in over 50 years that no strategic arms control limits exist between the world’s two largest nuclear powers, each possessing roughly 5,250 warheads. Without the treaty’s verification mechanisms, data-sharing protocols, and dialogue channels, American and Russian officials lost transparency into each other’s arsenals and intentions, creating a low-trust environment vulnerable to miscalculation.
President Trump dismissed urgency around negotiating a replacement, stating in January that if the treaty “expires, it expires” and claiming he would pursue “a better agreement” involving China. However, Beijing has refused to participate in nuclear disarmament talks, arguing it is “neither fair nor reasonable” given the vast disparity between its 600 warheads and those of the U.S. and Russia. A Trump administration official told NBC News the door remained open to talks with both nations, but no formal negotiations or counter-proposals have materialized.
Trump’s pattern of weaponizing federal authority against officials who resist his demands reflects broader disregard for institutional independence. Former Soviet negotiator Nikolai Sokov warned the world has reverted to early Cold War mentality, where uncertainty and acceptance of conflict were high. Without predictability mechanisms, China is expanding its arsenal by roughly 100 warheads annually and is projected to possess over 1,000 by 2030—a buildup experts attribute partly to the absence of verification checks and transparency.
Former President Obama stated the expiration would “pointlessly wipe out decades of diplomacy and could spark another arms race that makes the world less safe.” UN Secretary-General António Guterres called it a “grave moment” for international peace and security. Russia suspended the treaty in early 2023 over U.S. support for Ukraine but offered in September to voluntarily abide by its limits for one additional year—an offer Trump called “a good idea” but to which Washington provided no official response.
Experts warn that without a replacement agreement within five to seven years, an unrestricted nuclear arms race focusing on accuracy, sophistication, and interceptor-resistant designs rather than warhead quantity becomes likely. Sokov cautioned that “the sooner we start talking, the better the chance that we will be able to, once again, start regulating the nuclear arms race before it becomes irreversible.”
